Strictest policy of the Fed is a sign to get out of US actions

Los mercados bursátiles de Estados Unidos podrían tener que ceder el podio luego de disfrutar de su mejor racha de ganancias en dos décadas, que se ha extendido ya a tres años.

Con la Reserva Federal (Fed) preparándose para subir las tasas de interés por primera vez en casi cuatro años, el capital está empezando a salir de las acciones estadounidenses sensibles a los tipos hacia otros lugares del mundo donde los mercados están más baratos y pueden ser más resistentes.

La caída de casi el 10% del S&P 500 en lo que va de año ha superado las pérdidas de la mayoría de los índices no estadounidenses, y algunos consideran que las recientes salidas de inversión del mercado son sólo el principio.

Goldman Sachs's analysis of eight cycles of Fed fees ups since 1975 seems to support the opinion.

The Bank discovered that European actions exceeded Americans for four percentage points on average during the six months of the first rise in Fed rates.

He also observed a clear rotation towards the so -called value sectors, such as banks and raw materials, which are better represented in the reference rates of European Variable Income and emerging markets.

"What it means is that you have to leave the United States," said Mike Kelly, Chief of Pinebridge Investments Global Multi -Ays."It's about selling longer -term assets, so we are infraexposed to US variable income".

The longer duration values are those whose prices are driven by the expectations gains in the future and, therefore, they behave well when interest rates are low.

Las empresas tecnológicas estadounidenses, con sus exorbitantes valoraciones medidas por su relación precio-ganancia (PE), son un ejemplo excelente y representan más de un tercio del índice S&P 500.

For years, these values were a magnet for investment, benefiting from minimal interest rates and, recently, from the pandemic change towards work, purchases and meals in the house.

From the billion dollars that flowed to the shares last year, the funds dedicated to the United States took a third.They would also have received most of the cake of almost US $ 500,000 million absorbed by global orientation funds, according to Deutsche Bank.

Now, according to Kelly, the markets are at a turning point, far from when "the PE climbed and the interest rates fell".

Dado que cinco empresas de megacapitalización representaron un tercio de la rentabilidad del S&P 500 el año pasado, los sectores estadounidenses despreciados también deberían beneficiarse de la rotación.

Martin Schulz, senior portfolio manager of Federated Hermes, said that last autumn exceeded the international developed markets, betting on a wide world economic recovery."The cyclic character of European markets, Japanese markets believe that the great beneficiaries of this short -term globalized rebound are going to be".

Europe, cheap

Almost US $ 6,000 million fled the US Variable Income in the week until January 19, while the funds from Europe and emerging markets absorbed US $ 2.7 billion and US $ 5.2 billion respectively, according to Bofa.

Morgan Stanley's strategist, Graham Secker, also cited internal data that showed outputs of US $ 5,000 million of the Variable rental funds negotiated in the United States Stock Exchange (ETF), while those centered on the country's variable income lost US $8.500 million.The ETF of European shares earned US $ 3.6 billion.

"We are qualitatively detecting it by investors around the world, to move the weight of the United States a bit to other places," said Secker.

Monday's fall extended all over the world, since European actions collapsed 4% on their worst day since mid -2020 and emerging actions lost 2%.However, they can be relatively in a better position to deal with a more restrictive monetary policy.

Europe quotes with a 27% discount compared to Wall Street, compared to an average of 15% before the previous three Fed cycles, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.And the value shares in general are 50% cheaper than those of growth, twice the discount seen before the previous rates of rates.

Europe is also offering more positive economic data surprises and upward gain reviews than the United States, Secker said.

Also emerging markets

All markets will feel when central banks slow down the cash flow, and depending on what the Fed does, the net cash offer of the four large central banks could even be reduced for the first time in years in years.

But this cycle differs in an aspect of the previous one;Chine.

A more expansive Chinese monetary policy will benefit other emerging economies and export -centered Europe through trade prices and raw materials, and could mean a 10% rise for Asian actions in 2022, according to JPMorgan.

Kevin Mahn, director de inversiones de Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, sigue siendo optimista respecto de las acciones estadounidenses, pero considera que otros mercados podrían empezar a brillar también pronto.

"Maybe they begin to experience some of the growth we have seen in the American markets in the last three years," he added.